决策模型

Typed decision models answer a declared question without generating text: a decision head returns a probability for each of the declared options in a single forward pass. A single pass is fast, intuitive System 1 thinking. We study what lies between one pass and generated reasoning: looping, in which the same layers are recursively applied several times before one typed readout. Each loop lets the model revise its hidden state before it commits to an answer, without generating a token; we call this System 1.5 thinking. We propose SanSi, which turns a pre-trained looped language model into a typed decision model. The option probabilities are read after every loop, and every loop is trained with a proper scoring rule, so that one model serves every budget from one loop to eight in a single run. On 10,027 test decisions from 59 sources, SanSi reaches 72.0% accuracy: 13.5 points above a non-looped model of the same shape trained with the same recipe, 5.3 points above a newer non-looped model of its size, and 1.8 points below one with three times the parameters. On two depth-controlled tasks, loops extend the solvable depth beyond the depths seen in training, where the larger single-pass model fails. Used as the judge for policy optimization with reinforcement learning, without gold answers, SanSi raises the generator's F1 by 7.7 points.

Prefill-only decision models inspired by the Jev model score every candidate in a menu during a single forward pass and never decode, which makes one call one to two orders of magnitude cheaper than a same-scale generative language model. We show that this read-out structure comes with a testable property. When an intervention changes only the candidate menu and leaves the input text fixed, the post-intervention accuracy is already determined by the cached first-pass distribution. The estimator restricts the pass-1 probabilities to the menu, renormalizes, and reads off the argmax; it uses no labels and no second forward pass. Across seven model families, ten datasets and two task types, menu-only interventions are predicted to within 4.2 points, and for one family the prediction is exact. A probability-level variant of the same estimator errs by 21.0 points, so the property lives in the ranking rather than in the probabilities and is not recovered by calibration. Same-scale generative language models do not share the property. On those models the same estimator errs by 1.6 to 15.8 points and degrades as the model grows. The property turns inference-time compute into a decision that can be made before deployment. Uniform extra passes buy calibration but almost no accuracy; at matched cost a confidence cascade outperforms every scheme that re-asks the same model, and curating the menu beats enlarging the model, with a 0.8B model on a curated 5-candidate menu reaching 95.4% on CLINC150 against 80.0% for a 4B model on the full 150-label menu.Code and data are available at https://github.com/rlisml/jev-cascade.

Large language models (LLMs) can solve many narrow tasks, but querying them separately for millions of related instances can be prohibitively expensive. Can LLM agents autonomously create cheaper solutions for such workloads? We call this ability "bottling": the ability to turn general capabilities into task-specific solutions that balance answer quality and amortised cost. We introduce BOTTLED, a benchmark in which agents receive an entire unlabelled workload and must complete it under fixed time, compute and LLM API budgets. Agents choose their own approach, such as training a small model or writing a reusable program. Across ten models and three tasks, we find that strong zero-shot task performance does not reliably translate into strong bottling capabilities. Models with similar zero-shot scores can differ substantially after bottling, and 48 of 60 bottling runs score below the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval of their model's zero-shot performance. Moreover, 31 of 60 runs underperform the stronger of two small-model distillation baselines with the same token budget. Nevertheless, bottling can yield substantial savings: on query-product relevance classification, Opus 5 retains about 82% of its zero-shot macro-F1 at roughly 657 times lower reported cost. Bottling is also competitive with Jev, a "system one" model built especially for cheap, repetitive inference: Opus 5 on the same task recovers about 94% of Jev's macro-F1 at a quarter of Jev's projected full-workload cost. BOTTLED provides a basis for evaluating and improving agents' ability to invest limited resources in reusable solutions for large, repetitive workloads.

Large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems (MAS) have become a promising paradigm for complex information-seeking and reasoning tasks by enabling collaborative problem solving among specialized agents. However, existing MAS frameworks tightly couple task reasoning with coordination operations, including task selection, role assignment, message routing, and context management. As interactions grow, using powerful LLMs for these bounded control decisions introduces substantial token overhead and latency, limiting the scalability of agentic Web services. In this paper, we investigate whether coordination can be decoupled from expensive reasoning without compromising collaborative performance. We propose S1-MAS, a token-efficient multi-agent framework based on System One-guided computational division of labor. S1-MAS assigns bounded coordination decisions to lightweight System One models while reserving open-ended reasoning for capable LLM workers. Specifically, a lightweight controller selects inspection conditions, chooses subsequent tasks, and determines termination, while a compact reader retrieves condition-relevant evidence from authorized sources to support these decisions. Through a decision-evidence loop, selected tasks dynamically determine worker roles and source access, enabling adaptive collaboration without task-specific training. Extensive experiments on seven diverse benchmarks demonstrate that S1-MAS achieves superior accuracy while substantially reducing the inference cost. Across individual comparisons with AgentVerse, DyLAN, and SelfOrg on seven benchmarks, S1-MAS reduces GPT-4o token consumption by 44.9%-97.2% and measured end-to-end latency by 37.8%-93.0%. These results highlight its potential for scalable and cost-effective agentic Web applications.